Brazil is the largest coffee-growing country in the world, producing 40% of Arabica coffee, a popular bean. This year, as Brazil’s Arabica trees finish the off-year of the biennial production cycle after extreme in-season drought, global Arabica coffee production is declining and global ending inventories are expected to drop.

But wildcards can still weigh on next year’s crop. The prolonged drought might have overly stressed the trees, impacting the following year’s crop. And the expected return of a La Nina global climate event later this year could once again result in dry conditions in Brazil.

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